2010 Prediction Results

god of war 3 CoverOn the first of the year, the writers here presented their predictions for 2010 in the video game industry. It was our first attempt at anything like this, and since we're primarily gamers first, writers second, and industry experts in a distant last, this was definitely more of an exercise in fun forecasting than put-your-money-down-now predictions.

Well, we can't let bad predictions go forgotten and made fun of, so here we are again. We'll quickly cover what went randomly right and what went horribly wrong, but then we'll be back again on Friday for our fourth annual Game of the Year Awards.

What went RIGHT

BioShock 2 will be better than most of us expect - Yes, it was a lot better than I expected! The first BioShock was awesome but the second seemed unecessary. While I'll admit after playing it, BioShock 2 still doesn't feel crucial to the history of Rapture, it was still a fun game with excellent gameplay. While the story was just above average, it was still a lot better than the bomb I expected it to be. Or didn't expect it to be... because I predicted it would be better than we expected. Boy, this is confusing already.

Mass Effect 2 will live up to the hype - And then some. Mass Effect 2 is the second highest rated game of the year on Metacritic behind the equally awesome Super Mario Galaxy 2. However, this prediction was more about my personal hype being fulfilled than the industry's, and it succeeded at that too. One thing has been bugging me though, and that was the last line of my Mass Effect 2 review: "while Mass Effect 2 is, in my opinion, a better game than Mass Effect, I think I actually like the original more." I still don't know how to properly rationalize this even to myself.

New Zelda trailer at E3 - We got to see not only a trailer for Skyward Sword, but a decently long and awkward presentation put on my Shigeru Miyamoto himself! Paul Eastwood's other prediction that it wouldn't come out in 2010 also rang (easily) true. Here's hoping we get to play it in 2011 though.

What went WRONG

Final Fantasy XIII on the Xbox 360 will outsell the PlayStation 3 version - This was pretty foolish in retrospect, but I was counting a lot on the perceivable market for Final Fantasy XIII to be bigger on the Xbox 360, at least outside of Japan. Apparently, I was dead wrong as the PS3 version outsold the 360 version almost 2 to 1 from sales information from earlier this year. Ah well, sometimes you gotta swing for the fences.

God of War III will be the media's Game of the Year - I probably should have worded this a little better, because there is no such thing as a singular, ultimate, last word GAME OF THE YEAR decision made for all journalistic outlets (except for here, of course), but God of War 3 received great reviews and is on many GOTY lists at least as nominee. Due to my bad phrasing though, I was trying to be pretty definitive, especially how I mention all its potential adversaries including Super Mario Galaxy 2, Mass Effect 2, and Epic Mickey. So I'm going to have to say we were... wrong. Plus, Nate, our resident reviewer that actually played the game, was disappointed, so that kind of pushed me into filing this under here.

Metroid: Other M will be pushed back - For better or worse, Metroid: Other M was released in 2010. Oh well.

Heavy Rain will convince me to buy a PlayStation 3 - Nope, while I would buy Heavy Rain if I had a PS3, I wouldn't buy a PS3 if I had Heavy Rain.


Project Natal will bomb, PlayStation Motion Controller will be ignored - Natal, now known as Kinect, seems to be selling pretty well. The PlayStation Move is supposedly shipping big numbers, but it's hard to tell what the actual sell through is. And since a typical Move setup will require a few different purchased peripherals, it's even harder to determine where the chips are landing. My gut tells me Kinect is probably going to be the winner, and definitely not "bomb," but that Move is and will continue to be ignored. Oh look, a 2011 prediction right there!

What went WTF?!

Metal Gear Solid: Chabudai Gaeshi - When Paul Eastwood sent me this comment, "The young team producing MGS: Rising will have their tea table overturned by Kojima-san, who will then take over the reins as producer and make it much more like MSG4," I had no idea what he was talking about. I still don't.